By Burton G. Malkiel
Okay, so i am not performed with the ebook but, yet i am already irked that i learn the 1st a hundred pages while it might simply were condensed into twenty or thirty pages. Soo boring... Get to the beef already!
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Additional resources for A random walk down Wall Street: including a life-cycle guide to personal investing
When stereotypical information is added, such as “Dick is 30 years old, married, shows no interest in politics or social issues, and likes to spend free time on his many hobbies, which include carpentry and mathematical puzzles,” people totally ignore the base rate and bet Dick is an engineer, despite the 70 percent chance that he is a lawyer. It’s difficult to blame people. Base rates are boring; experience is vivid and fun. The only way anyone will pay 100 times a company’s earnings for a stock is if it has got a tremendous story.
An accountant must offer an opinion on the creditworthiness of a firm. A college administrator must decide which students to accept into a graduate program. A psychologist must decide if a patient’s ills are neurosis or psychosis. A doctor must decide if it’s liver cancer or not. More prosaically, a bookie tries to handicap the next horse race. All these are activities in which an expert predicts an outcome. They occur every day and make up the fabric of our lives. Generally, predictions are made in two ways.
And 1999. The Dogs failed miserably! ” Investors followed suit and left the strategy in droves, presumably piling into the then hot large cap growth category. What happened next is what seems to always happen next: The Dogs resurged phoenix-like, while large cap growth sank like a stone. This story neatly demonstrates why investors tend to do so poorly over time—they are forever focusing just on what is working now, without any thought to how it has stood the test of time. Everyone wants to believe that “it’s different this time” and extrapolate current trends in the market ad infinitum.
A random walk down Wall Street: including a life-cycle guide to personal investing by Burton G. Malkiel