Download e-book for kindle: Hidden Markov models in finance by Rogemar S. Mamon, Robert J. Elliott

By Rogemar S. Mamon, Robert J. Elliott

ISBN-10: 0387710817

ISBN-13: 9780387710815

ISBN-10: 0387711635

ISBN-13: 9780387711638

A variety of methodologies were hired to supply choice making ideas to an entire collection of monetary difficulties in state-of-the-art globalized markets. Hidden Markov types in Finance by means of Mamon and Elliott stands out as the first systematic program of those easy methods to a few specific types of monetary difficulties; specifically, pricing concepts and variance swaps, valuation of existence policies, rate of interest concept, credits threat modeling, probability administration, research of destiny call for and stock point, checking out foreign currencies fee speculation, and early caution platforms for forex crises. This e-book presents researchers and practitioners with analyses that permit them to kind in the course of the random "noise" of economic markets (i.e., turbulence, volatility, emotion, chaotic occasions, etc.) and learn the elemental parts of financial markets. accordingly, Hidden Markov versions in Finance presents choice makers with a transparent, exact photograph of center monetary parts by means of filtering out the random noise in monetary markets.


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Extra resources for Hidden Markov models in finance

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030851. In fact, the sum of squared errors does not change perceptibly when the volatility is restricted to be σ = 0, and the p-value is virtually 1. A similar comment applies 2 The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Hidden Markov Setting 27 to the other cases, even in states one and two of the three state case, where the volatility is estimated to be somewhat larger, it is still not significantly different from zero. An explanation for this can be seen quite clearly in the degenerate case, which is Vasiˇcek’s [10] model.

We model randomness through the volatility and mean-reverting level as well as through the interest rate directly. The short- term interest rate is modeled in a risk-neutral setting as a continuous process in continuous time. This allows the valuation of interest rate derivatives using the martingale approach. In particular, a solution is found for the value of a zero-coupon bond. This leads to a non-linear regression model for the yield to maturity, which is used to filter the state of the unobservable Markov chain.

The transition matrix P for a Markov chain can be generated by the transition rate matrix Q through the forward Kolmogorov equation ∂P(s, t) = P(s, t)Q(s + t). ∂t Since Q is homogeneous, the general solution to the forward Kolmogorov equation is P(s, t) = C(s)eQt and since P(s, 0) = I, the identity matrix, the constant must also be the identity matrix, C(s) = I. From this we can conclude that the transition functions are independent of the starting time s, the transition matrix is the matrix exponential of Q P(t) = eQt , and the forward Kolmogorov integral equation is t P(u)Q du.

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Hidden Markov models in finance by Rogemar S. Mamon, Robert J. Elliott

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