By Yuri Ermoliev, Marek Makowski, Kurt Marti
ISBN-10: 3642228836
ISBN-13: 9783642228834
Managing defense of numerous structures calls for decision-making lower than uncertainties and hazards. Such platforms tend to be characterised by means of spatio-temporal heterogeneities, inter-dependencies, externalities, endogenous hazards, discontinuities, irreversibility, essentially irreducible uncertainties, and infrequent occasions with catastrophic results. conventional clinical techniques depend upon information from actual observations and experiments; but no adequate observations exist for brand spanking new difficulties, and experiments tend to be most unlikely. as a result, science-based aid for addressing such new classification of difficulties must substitute the normal “deterministic predictions” research through new equipment and instruments for designing judgements which are strong opposed to the concerned uncertainties and dangers. the hot tools deal with uncertainties explicitly by utilizing “synthetic” info derived through integration of “hard” components, together with on hand information, result of attainable experiments, and formal representations of medical evidence, with “soft” components in line with varied representations of situations and reviews of public, stakeholders, and specialists. the quantity offers such powerful new tools, and illustrates their functions in numerous troublesome areas, together with engineering, economic system, finance, agriculture, surroundings, and coverage making.
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Extra resources for Managing Safety of Heterogeneous Systems: Decisions under Uncertainties and Risks
Example text
X/. This raises a key issue regarding actual outcomes of derived solutions in the presence of uncertainty. The decision-theoretic approach explicitly addresses uncertainty based on PA’s perceptions of agents behavioral scenarios. These scenarios can be represented (see examples in Sects. 5 and 6) either by a set ˘ of mixed strategies 2 ˘ defined on a set of pure strategies Y , or by a set Y of pure strategies y 2 Y . This leads then to two classes of STO models. /, where ! is an exogenous uncertainty.
Repetitive observations are used to characterize risk by a probability distribution that can be used in risk management. Statistical decision theory, expected utility theory and more general stochastic optimization (STO) theory provide common approaches for this purpose. Security management includes threats generated (intentionally or unintentionally) by intelligent agents. Obvious examples are threats to public goods and homeland security from terrorists (Ezell and von Winterfeldt 2009). Less evident examples are floods which are often triggered by rains, hurricanes, and earthquakes in combination with inappropriate land use planning, maintenance of flood protection systems and behavior of various agents.
Von Winterfeldt decision x for different scenarios ! may have rather contradictory outcomes, which do not really tell us which decision is reasonably good (robust) for all of them. For example, models (1), (2) show that for any scenario ! , the scenario-by-scenario analysis will not suggest solutions in the form of quantile (3). , analysis of all combinations of 10 scenarios and 10 different decisions may easy require 1010 sec. > 100 years. Models (1), (2) illustrate the main specifics of STO problems of the following sections.
Managing Safety of Heterogeneous Systems: Decisions under Uncertainties and Risks by Yuri Ermoliev, Marek Makowski, Kurt Marti
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