Download e-book for iPad: Quantitative Analysis of Market Data by Adam Grimes

By Adam Grimes

ISBN-10: 1511557311

ISBN-13: 9781511557313

Investors who comprehend the information and possibilities at the back of the activities of economic markets need to instruments to discover a permanent buying and selling aspect. This publication is written to be obtainable to the dealer with no heavy mathematical historical past, and works towards a deep, intuitive knowing of statistical instruments utilized to marketplace facts. keep away from universal missteps and increase the talents to place the percentages on your want.

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It is certainly possible that the relationship between two variables might be better explained by a curve than a straight line, or that a single extreme value (outlier) could have a large effect on the slope of the line. If any of these are true, the results of the regression will be biased at best, and seriously misleading at worst. It is also important to realize that any result truly applies to only the specific sample examined. For instance, if we find a pattern that holds in 50 stocks over a five-year period, we might assume that it will also work in other stocks and, hopefully, outside of the five-year period.

It is always a good idea to start any analysis by examining summary statistics for each series. 1% At a glance, we can see that ABX, the S&P 500 (SPX), and Gold all have nearly the same mean return. ABX is considerably more volatile, having at least one instance where it lost 20 percent of its value in a single week. Any data series with this much variation, measured by a comparison of the standard deviation to the mean return, has a lot of noise. It is important to notice this, because this noise may hinder the usefulness of any analysis.

Though we have a slope for the regression line, there is usually also a —26— Quantitative Analysis of Market Data: a Primer lot of random variation around it, and the apparent slope could simply be due to random chance. The p-value quantifies that chance, essentially saying what the probability of seeing this slope would be if there were actually no relationship between the two variables. Figure 12 Best-Fit Line on Scatterplot of ABX (Y-Axis) and Gold The third important measure is R2 (or R-squared), which is a measure of how much of the variation in the dependent variable is explained by the independent variable.

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Quantitative Analysis of Market Data by Adam Grimes


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