New PDF release: Rethinking Economic Behaviour: How the Economy Really Works

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Example text

2 The benchmark used for comparison was the simplistic projection that next year’s output growth or inflation rate would be the same as this year’s. For the forecasts of output, this simple rule performed at least as well as the official forecasts. In predicting inflation, it performed slightly better than the official forecasts. These results are quite typical of 28 Rethinking Economic Behaviour the performance of national government forecasts in general. Perhaps private forecasters, spurred on by the prospect of gain, could do better?

But the econometricians go on estimating their parameters regardless of these uncertainties. Even if they had been based on perfect information, such parameters would have been, in any case, of doubtful significance. 18 Conclusions The development of equilibrium economics since Marshall has been a story not of intellectual progress, but of intellectual retreat. We are now further away from, not closer to, an understanding of how a modern economy actually works. The assumptions of the most recent equilibrium theories are far more demanding than the assumptions of the scheme of general equilibrium originally put forward by Walras more than 100 years ago.

They demonstrate conclusively that trading volumes and price volatility are large, and both series show significant autocorrelation. 8 And few people believe that the crash of the New York stockmarket in 1987 can be attributed to new market information being issued at the time. In response to these criticisms, some behavioural or ‘noise trading’ theorists have built models of stockmarket behaviour in which there are two classes of trader, ‘irrational’ investors and ‘rational expectations’ traders.

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