By Wayne A. Thorp
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Sample text
The overall feeling tone—positive versus negative—expressed in the media about the S&P 500 and its constituent stocks is called sentiment. 1. When short-term sentiment drops below longer-term sentiment, prices tend to follow it lower. When short-term sentiment rises above the long-term average, S&P 500 prices often subsequently rise. This relationship isn’t perfect, yet investors who remained out of stocks during declining sentiment periods (shaded dark gray) and who were invested during rising sentiment periods (shaded light gray) would have significantly outperformed a stock market buy-and-hold strategy.
Strategies based on this idea are explored in Chapter 13. Professor Lerner also studied the effects of fear. 24,25 Fearful investors avoid transacting, paralyzed as prices slide until fear reaches an extreme level characteristic of panic. 26 As for gloom, Lerner found that behavioral responses to sadness (a synonym of gloom) are characterized by higher bid prices, lower ask prices, and overtrading. ” As a result of the increased willingness of sad investors to transact, an equity sector with a high level of gloom might be expected to experience higher relative trading volumes.
Nagel, and A. Satorra, “One, Two, (Three), Infinity … : Newspaper and Lab Beauty-Contest Experiments,” American Economic Review 92 (5), (December 2002), pp. 1687–1701. 10. ” Adapted from slides originally prepared by Rosemarie Nagel at UPF-ICREA 2009. pdf. tex V2 - 02/19/2016 8:48pm Page 18 FOUNDATIONS 11. com/. 12. Bruguier, A. , Quartz, S. ’” The Journal of Finance, 65(5) 2010, 1703–1723. 13. term=emotion. 14. V. Prabhakaran, B. Rypma, and J. D. Gabrieli, “Neural Substrates of Mathematical Reasoning: A Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Study of Neocortical Activation During Performance of the Necessary Arithmetic Operations Test,” Neuropsychology 15 (1) (January 2001), 115–127.
Technical Analysis by Wayne A. Thorp
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